MLB: Stolen Bases Leader

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 Major League Baseball regular season will conclude on 28 September, determining which player accumulates the most stolen bases. With the market offering an 8% implied probability for a "YES" outcome on the current favourite, the consensus heavily favours Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz, whose +300 odds suggest a 25% chance of victory. Historical data from FanGraphs projects De La Cruz and Rays prospect Chandler Simpson to tie at 41 steals, yet the betting lines place Simpson at +400, creating a distinct value spot for the underdog if the consensus overestimates De La Cruz's durability.

Traders must monitor injury reports and lineup dependencies, as De La Cruz's recent volatility in playing time could shift the leader to a more consistent runner like Bobby Witt Jr. or Corbin Carroll. Recent projections from FantasyPros confirm De La Cruz and Simpson as the top two contenders, but the official MLB tie-breaker rules—prioritising fewer caught stealings—introduce a contrarian angle for players with higher success rates. With Nasim Nuñez currently leading the 2026 season with 31 steals, the race remains fluid, and any late-season slump for the favourite could render the 8% price a significant mispricing of the true underdog value.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.