"Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Paramount horror franchise "Scary Movie" is scheduled for theatrical release on 6 June 2026, with opening weekend box office performance (3–7 June) forming the settlement basis. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to this outcome, suggesting either extreme scepticism about the film's commercial viability or uncertainty about whether it will release as scheduled.

Horror-comedy franchises have shown volatile opening weekends depending on franchise fatigue and cultural timing. The original "Scary Movie" (2000) opened to $42.3 million domestically, whilst subsequent instalments declined: "Scary Movie 3" (2003) grossed $42.8 million, and "Scary Movie 5" (2013) managed only $17.9 million. The franchise lay dormant for over a decade before this revival announcement. Recent horror reboots have demonstrated mixed results—"Scream" (2022) opened to $30.7 million, whilst "Happy Death Day" (2017) opened to $26.2 million. The zero probability reflects legitimate concerns about whether audiences retain appetite for this particular franchise after such an extended absence.

Traders should monitor Paramount's marketing spend and release-date confirmation through spring 2026, as horror films often depend heavily on word-of-mouth and social media momentum in their final weeks. Cast announcements and trailer reception will signal whether the studio has secured recognisable talent capable of driving opening-weekend turnout. Any delays or format changes (streaming release, theatrical window adjustments) would fundamentally alter settlement conditions. The current zero reading likely undervalues the possibility of a modest $15–25 million opening, particularly if Paramount positions this as a legacy revival targeting nostalgic millennials.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.