"Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the domestic opening weekend gross of the historical epic *Young Washington* over the three-day period from July 3 to July 5, 2026, with final figures drawn from The Numbers once studio estimates are replaced by reported data. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, suggesting the market expects the film to fail its opening bracket, yet consensus tracking from early analysts projects a range between $23 million and $35 million, with some forecasting a domestic run up to $145 million[2]. Historical precedents like *Supergirl*, which collapsed 76% in its second weekend after a modest opening, illustrate how quickly an initial debate becomes a verdict when audiences do not return[1]. In that case, a $10 million second weekend confirmed a lack of legs, whereas *Young Washington* faces a crowded July 4 weekend dominated by *Minions & Monsters*, which is tracking for a $95 million five-day opening, creating a contrarian angle where the historical film could outperform if the animated blockbuster undercuts expectations[4].

Traders should watch the finalisation of the 3-day box office figures on July 5, as the market resolves to the higher bracket if the value falls exactly between two ranges, and monitor whether Angel Studios releases updated domestic totals that contradict early estimates[6]. The film’s estimated $20 million budget suggests a domestic opening near $20 million is plausible, but if the final gross exceeds $23 million, the value spot may lie in the contrarian belief that the historical narrative resonates more strongly than anticipated during the 250th birthday celebrations[5]. Recent coverage notes that *Young Washington* is shaping up as one of the most interesting box office stories of the season, with early reviews comparing its epic tone to *Braveheart*, a potential catalyst if social sentiment drives a surprise surge in ticket sales[7]. The settlement window ends on July 6, 2026, at 12:00 UTC, meaning the final decision hinges on whether the reported gross crosses the threshold before the deadline, with *Minions & Monsters* serving as the primary underdog competitor that could either overshadow or be overshadowed by the historical drama[8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.