# of views of MrBeast video day 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

MrBeast’s latest upload is being judged on how many views it records in its first 96 hours, and the market is currently pricing the 0% YES side as the favourite outcome. That makes the consensus unusually tight around a single view band, with very little room left for surprise unless the counter materially slows or accelerates before the window closes. On recent comparable runs, MrBeast has still been drawing enormous four-day totals, but the trajectory matters: recent commentary has pointed to a fall from roughly 119 million four-day views to 78 million, then lower again, which is why traders have been wary of chasing the upper brackets.

For a handicapper, the key question is whether the video behaves like one of his stronger launches or another step down in the trend. A recent Think Media discussion, “MrBeast’s Views Are Down 50%… Is YouTube Dying?”, highlighted the broader backdrop of more distributed attention across YouTube, which can cap the upside even when a MrBeast video performs well. The market’s current shape suggests consensus is already leaning towards the established trend rather than a breakout. Any value on the contrarian side would likely depend on unusually strong retention, sustained recommendation traffic, or a promotion spike from MrBeast’s wider channels and socials.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track # of views of MrBeast video day 4? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.