Ethereum price on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market prices Ethereum's ETH/USDT noon close on 26 May 2026 at a 0% implied probability for "Yes", meaning the crowd assigns zero likelihood to the price landing within the specified bracket. This represents an extreme consensus view, with all capital flowing toward "No". Given the settlement window closes at 16:00 UTC that same day, traders are betting against a specific price level materialising at a precise moment—a narrow target in a volatile asset class.

Historical precedent suggests that extreme probabilities (0% or 100%) in spot-price markets often reflect either genuine consensus around a price floor or ceiling, or a liquidity void where no trader has bothered to test the hypothesis. Ethereum's trading range over multi-year periods has expanded considerably; the asset traded below $1,000 in 2020 and above $4,000 by 2021. A five-year forward price prediction carries substantial uncertainty. The 0% reading here likely indicates the bracket sits far outside consensus expectations rather than reflecting ironclad certainty about price direction.

Catalysts between now and May 2026 include Ethereum's Shanghai and subsequent upgrades, regulatory developments in major jurisdictions, and macroeconomic shifts affecting risk appetite. The Ethereum Foundation's roadmap remains public, though execution timelines shift. Bitcoin's price action typically correlates with Ethereum's, making broader crypto sentiment a dependency. Traders monitoring this market should track whether institutional adoption accelerates, whether proof-of-stake staking yields remain competitive, and whether competing layer-one blockchains gain material market share.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.