Which NFL players will be traded?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market assesses whether a named NFL player will change teams via trade before the end of July 2026, with the crowd currently pricing this outcome at 2 per cent. This settlement window extends roughly 18 months from the 2024–25 season, capturing the full off-season window and into summer 2026.

NFL trades remain relatively uncommon compared to other major sports, particularly for established players on multi-year contracts. Historical data shows that roughly 15–25 trades occur annually across the league, though high-profile mid-season moves are rarer than deadline-adjacent transactions. The 2023 off-season saw notable trades involving Kirk Cousins and Saquon Barkley, whilst mid-season moves have included players like Matthew Stafford (2021) and Khalil Mack (2018). The 2 per cent implied probability reflects the base rarity of trades for any individual player, though this varies substantially depending on contract structure, age, performance trajectory and roster fit. Players in the final year of deals or those with declining production face higher trade likelihood than franchise cornerstones.

Traders should monitor several catalysts: coaching or front-office changes that alter roster priorities; injury announcements affecting player value; contract restructurings that signal either commitment or cap-driven distress; and public statements from team executives regarding roster direction. The NFL draft (April 2025) and subsequent free agency period typically clarify which teams view their rosters as complete. Recent reporting from ESPN and The Athletic has highlighted cap pressures facing several franchises heading into 2025, which may force difficult roster decisions by mid-season.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.