How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical bottleneck where roughly 20% of global oil flows, yet recent weeks have seen traffic severely disrupted by conflict between the US and Iran before a tentative peace framework emerged. The market favours a YES outcome at an implied 82% probability, suggesting the crowd expects ship counts to meet the threshold for the week of 6 July 2026. Historically, even after the June peace deal, experts warned traffic would trickle at only 15 vessels daily for eight weeks to clear backlogs, far below the normal 60 per day, framing the current probability as potentially overconfident given the persistent operational stall reported in late June.

Traders should monitor the finalisation of IMF Portwatch data for 6–12 July, specifically watching for announcements on whether the interim cease-fire has fully restored the US military lane or if Iranian restrictions still block outbound tankers. A recent New York Post report noted that while ships began trickling through after the agreement, the majority of 500 trapped vessels were not expected to move until a signing in Switzerland, with recovery staying cautious and volumes considerably lower than pre-war levels [3]. The key value spot lies in the contrarian angle that the 82% crowd implied probability ignores the risk that data finalisation may still reflect near-zero transits if the backlog clearance is slower than projected, making the NO side a potential value play if the week’s finalized count falls short.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.