Colombia Presidential Election

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Colombia holds its presidential election on 31 May 2026, with a potential runoff on 21 June if no candidate achieves an outright majority. The current 0% implied probability reflects either extreme confidence in a clear first-round winner or insufficient market liquidity at present. Given Colombia's recent electoral history, a second round remains plausible; Iván Duque won in 2022 with 50.4% in the first ballot, whilst Gustavo Petro's 2022 victory came via runoff after finishing second initially.

The consensus view appears anchored to frontrunner positioning from recent polling, though Colombian politics has shown capacity for surprise shifts. Petro's administration, now mid-term, faces public opinion shaped by inflation, security concerns, and pension reform debates—all potential drivers of voter sentiment by mid-2026. Key catalysts include major policy announcements from the government, candidate registration deadlines, and primary contests among opposition coalitions. The electoral calendar itself matters: if no candidate breaks 50% in May, the June runoff becomes the decisive event, extending uncertainty and potentially allowing late-breaking developments to influence outcomes.

Traders should monitor whether consensus frontrunners consolidate support or fragment across multiple candidates. A fragmented field increases runoff probability substantially, whilst dominant polling leads suggest first-round resolution. The settlement window extending to December 2026 provides ample time for results confirmation, reducing "Other" resolution risk significantly compared to tighter timeframes.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.