Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz is still running below its normal throughput, so the market’s **6%** YES implies the favourite is **No** and that a full return to at least a 7-day average of 60 ship calls by 31 August looks like a low-probability recovery. IMF Portwatch’s own methodology matters here: if ships are rerouted, delayed, or operating with AIS gaps, they do not count, which makes a clean snap-back harder than a headline “reopening” would suggest.[2][17]

The historical read is that this is not a simple on/off trade. Reuters reported traffic at well below 10% of normal in April, then a sharp uptick later as convoys and reopening steps improved flows, but still not back to pre-war levels.[3][4][9] Reuters again said in June and July that transits were improving at times, yet remained well short of the roughly 125 crossings seen before hostilities, and renewed strikes or closures quickly pushed volumes back down.[6][8][10][13] That pattern favours the underdog only if the market is over-discounting a sustained, orderly recovery.

The main catalysts are security developments, shipping-company risk assessments, and any deal terms affecting tolls, escorts, or corridor access. Reuters and CNBC noted that tanker operators were still cautious, with some firms explicitly avoiding the strait and others saying normal schedules could take weeks or months to restore.[5][11] The contrarian value case is that even partial stabilisation can lift the 7-day average quickly if enough large transits return; the consensus case is that one fresh incident, blockade move, or mine-clearing delay can keep the average below 60 right through settlement.[1][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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