Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz is still trading like a **favourite to normalise**, with the market at **61% YES**, but that price already assumes a fairly smooth recovery in a waterway that only recently moved from near-standstill conditions to partial reopening. Portwatch is the key trigger here: the market needs a **7-day average of 60 ship arrivals** at any point before year-end, so traders are really betting on sustained throughput rather than a one-off spike.[1]

The historical read-through is mixed. Reuters reported in April that traffic was still under 10% of typical volumes, with only seven vessels crossing in 24 hours versus a normal flow of about 140, while later reporting from June said the route had begun reopening but remained far below pre-war levels because mines still had to be cleared and commercial traffic was recovering gradually.[13][14] That backdrop makes the current YES price look defensible as a recovery trade, but not clean value: the threshold is low versus pre-crisis norms, yet it still depends on the system holding together long enough for the 7-day average to print above 60.

The main catalysts are political and operational rather than seasonal: any fresh U.S.-Iran agreement, ceasefire breakdown, or renewed blockade rhetoric could move the count quickly, while clearance work, vessel insurance, and backlog release are the practical dependencies to watch. CNBC reported in July that renewed U.S.-Iran conflict had already choked traffic again, which is the sort of headline that can flip this market from favourite to underdog in days if shipping firms pull back.[17] The contrarian angle is that consensus may be leaning too hard on eventual reopening; the value on **NO** sits in the risk that traffic improves but never stabilises at 60-plus for a full rolling week before 31 December 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

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