Iran ceasefire continues through?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The US and Iran have maintained an undeclared ceasefire following escalations in early 2024, with neither side conducting direct kinetic strikes on the other's territory for several months. The market currently prices this continuation at 100%, reflecting either genuine confidence in de-escalation or a lack of liquidity at the extremes. The resolution hinges on whether the US conducts military action on Iranian soil before the specified date—a narrow but consequential trigger that excludes proxy activity, cyber operations, or strikes outside Iranian territory.

Historical precedent suggests sustained US-Iran ceasefires are fragile but occasionally durable. The 2015 nuclear deal held for three years despite mutual accusations and proxy conflicts; the 2020 Soleimani killing and subsequent Iranian missile strikes resolved without further direct escalation. Both episodes involved periods of apparent stability that markets initially mispriced as permanent. The current 100% probability reflects either genuine structural change in US-Iran calculus or a market that has not yet priced tail risks—particularly miscalculation during regional flare-ups or shifts in US administration policy.

Traders should monitor statements from the US Department of Defense and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps regarding red lines and provocation thresholds. The renewal of UN sanctions waivers, any significant escalation in Yemen or Iraq involving Iranian proxies, and shifts in US military posture in the Gulf warrant close attention. Recent reporting from Reuters and AP News indicates both sides have maintained backchannel communication, though these channels can rupture quickly. The market's perfect odds suggest either genuine confidence or an absence of contrarian conviction—a setup that historically rewards those willing to price genuine geopolitical risk.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.