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Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

Comparison of odds and platforms for "Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?" — sourced live from the Polymarket order book, curated by PolyGram.

61 outcomes · leader: Andy Burnham at 24%

1% YES 99% NO Volume: $6.0M 24h volume: $462K Liquidity: $677K Opened: 5 Feb 2026 Closes: 31 Dec 2026 76 comments

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source

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Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

Market statistics

Total volume
$6.0M
24h volume
$462K
Liquidity
$677K
Open interest
$206K
Comments
76

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
1% 99% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
1% 99% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Available prediction outcomes (61)

Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.

#1 Andy Burnham
Andy Burnham ▼ -14.7%
Vol $399K · 24h $36K
24% Trade →
#2 No Next PM in 2026
No Next PM in 2026 ▲ +4.0%
Vol $315K · 24h $19K
22% Trade →
#3 Ed Miliband
Ed Miliband ▲ +12.5%
Vol $267K · 24h $31K
17% Trade →
#4 Wes Streeting
Wes Streeting ▲ +0.5%
Vol $159K · 24h $40K
17% Trade →
#5 Angela Rayner
Angela Rayner ▼ -3.5%
Vol $363K · 24h $28K
13% Trade →
#6 Al Carns
Al Carns ▲ +3.2%
Vol $163K · 24h $17K
7% Trade →
#7 Shabana Mahmood
Shabana Mahmood ▲ +0.2%
Vol $256K · 24h $11K
1% Trade →
#8 Yvette Cooper
Yvette Cooper ▼ -0.9%
Vol $242K · 24h $8K
1% Trade →
#9 David Lammy
David Lammy ▼ -0.4%
Vol $239K · 24h $14K
1% Trade →
#10 Nigel Farage
Nigel Farage ▼ -0.5%
Vol $765K · 24h $11K
1% Trade →
#11 Lucy Powell
Lucy Powell ▼ -0.1%
Vol $247K · 24h $13K
1% Trade →
#12 Rachel Reeves
Rachel Reeves ▼ -0.3%
Vol $416K · 24h $9K
0% Trade →
#13 Kemi Badenoch
Kemi Badenoch
Vol $147K · 24h $4K
0% Trade →
#14 Bridget Phillipson
Bridget Phillipson
Vol $115K · 24h $15K
0% Trade →
#15 Darren Jones
Darren Jones ▼ -0.3%
Vol $170K · 24h $13K
0% Trade →
#16 Boris Johnson
Boris Johnson
Vol $222K · 24h $6K
0% Trade →
#17 Ed Davey
Ed Davey
Vol $335K · 24h $159K
0% Trade →
#18 Rupert Lowe
Rupert Lowe ▼ -0.1%
Vol $619K · 24h $6K
0% Trade →
#19 Robert Jenrick
Robert Jenrick
Vol $342K · 24h $14K
0% Trade →
#20 James Cleverly
James Cleverly
Vol $254K · 24h $6K
0% Trade →
#21 Person A
Person A
0% Trade →
#22 Person B
Person B
0% Trade →
#23 Person C
Person C
0% Trade →
#24 Person D
Person D
0% Trade →
#25 Person E
Person E
0% Trade →
#26 Person F
Person F
0% Trade →
#27 Person G
Person G
0% Trade →
#28 Person H
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0% Trade →
#29 Person I
Person I
0% Trade →
#30 Person J
Person J
0% Trade →
#31 Person K
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0% Trade →
#32 Person L
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0% Trade →
#33 Person M
Person M
0% Trade →
#34 Person N
Person N
0% Trade →
#35 Person O
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0% Trade →
#36 Person P
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#37 Person Q
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0% Trade →
#38 Person R
Person R
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#39 Person S
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#40 Person T
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#41 Person U
Person U
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#42 Person V
Person V
0% Trade →
#43 Person W
Person W
0% Trade →
#44 Person X
Person X
0% Trade →
#45 Person Y
Person Y
0% Trade →
#46 Person Z
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0% Trade →
#47 Person AA
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0% Trade →
#48 Person AB
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0% Trade →
#49 Person AC
Person AC
0% Trade →
#50 Person AD
Person AD
0% Trade →
#51 Person AE
Person AE
0% Trade →
#52 Person AF
Person AF
0% Trade →
#53 Person AG
Person AG
0% Trade →
#54 Person AH
Person AH
0% Trade →
#55 Person AI
Person AI
0% Trade →
#56 Person AJ
Person AJ
0% Trade →
#57 Person AK
Person AK
0% Trade →
#58 Person AL
Person AL
0% Trade →
#59 Person AM
Person AM
0% Trade →
#60 Person AN
Person AN
0% Trade →
#61 Other
Other
0% Trade →

Market context

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source

Wikipedia Context

  • Next Ukrainian presidential election

    Presidential elections were scheduled to be held in Ukraine in March or April 2024. However, as martial law has been in effect since 24 February 2022 in response to the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, no elections were held because Ukrainian law does not allow presidential elections to be held when martial law is in effect. Martial law has been exten

  • Next Ukrainian parliamentary election

    Parliamentary elections are expected to take place in Ukraine to elect members of the Verkhovna Rada after the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war. According to the Ukrainian electoral code, the electoral process should start within a month from the cancellation of the state of martial law that was introduced in 2022 following the Russian invasion. The previous p

  • Next Ukrainian local elections

    Ukrainian local elections were originally scheduled to be held in 2025, however, due to the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War and the constitutional inability for Ukraine to hold elections during a period of martial law, elections were not held and no date for a future local election is yet set. The last local elections were held in 2020.

  • Next Ukrainian census
    Next Ukrainian census

    The next Ukrainian census is planned to be conducted by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The 2001 census was the most recent, and the only census conducted in independent Ukraine to date. The next census was to have been held ten years later, in 2011. However, the next census has been regularly delayed and a date for a new census has not been set.

Methodology

This page reviews Next UK Prime Minister in 2026? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

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