Trump out as President by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump would need to resign, be removed through impeachment and conviction, or be declared ineligible under the 25th Amendment before 30 June 2026 for this market to settle Yes. The crowd currently prices this at 1%, reflecting the historical rarity of presidential departure mid-term and Trump's stated intention to serve his full second term following his 2024 election victory.

Presidential removal outside election cycles remains extraordinarily uncommon in American history. Richard Nixon resigned in 1974 facing near-certain impeachment conviction; no other sitting president has departed office involuntarily. Impeachment requires House passage followed by Senate conviction (two-thirds majority needed), a threshold Republicans currently control and show no appetite to cross. The 25th Amendment's Section 4 mechanism—whereby the cabinet and vice-president can declare a president unfit—has never been invoked and carries severe political costs. Historical precedent suggests the 1% probability reflects genuine structural difficulty rather than underestimation of Trump-specific risk.

Near-term catalysts centre on legal proceedings and health developments. Trump faces multiple criminal indictments with trial schedules extending into 2025 and 2026, though conviction would not automatically remove him from office. The 14th Amendment's insurrection clause, tested in state ballot challenges during 2024, remains subject to Supreme Court interpretation. Any serious health event, public mental health crisis, or dramatic shift in Republican congressional sentiment could alter the calculus, but none currently shows material probability. The market's 1% reflects that removal requires either an extraordinary legal outcome or unprecedented intra-party action—neither of which current conditions suggest as imminent.

Methodology

We track Trump out as President by June 30? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.