Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market tests whether the Trump administration will formally declare a breakdown in any US-Iran ceasefire arrangement before end of June 2026. The 15% implied probability reflects the baseline expectation that no such announcement occurs—either because no ceasefire materialises in the first place, or because any agreement remains nominally intact through the settlement window. The resolution hinges on explicit, official language from Trump, the US government, or military confirming that a ceasefire commitment has ended or been abandoned.

Historical precedent offers limited direct comparison. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was unilaterally abandoned by Trump in May 2018, but that was a nuclear accord rather than a military ceasefire. The Trump administration's "maximum pressure" campaign that followed involved sanctions escalation and targeted strikes (notably the January 2020 killing of Qasem Soleimani), yet no formal ceasefire existed to break. Any new ceasefire would likely emerge from either direct negotiations or de-escalation following a crisis. The current probability suggests traders view a formal ceasefire as unlikely within the timeframe, or expect Trump to maintain strategic ambiguity rather than issue explicit termination statements.

Key catalysts include any major escalation between US and Iranian forces, shifts in Middle East regional dynamics (particularly Israeli-Iranian tensions), and Trump administration personnel changes affecting Iran policy. Recent statements from Trump's team have emphasised deterrence and pressure rather than negotiated settlement, though circumstances can shift rapidly. The settlement window extends eighteen months from market creation, providing ample time for diplomatic reversals or military incidents to force explicit policy announcements.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.