Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

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Market context

Israelis will vote for a new parliament on 27 October 2026, with the next Prime Minister appointed shortly after, regardless of whether an early election is triggered. The market currently implies a 35% chance that the incumbent, Benjamin Netanyahu, will be the next Prime Minister, positioning him as the favourite despite recent polling shifts that show Naftali Bennett and Gadi Eisenkot as more suitable candidates for the premiership in the eyes of the public[2][5]. Historically, Israeli coalition building has been fragile, with frequent early elections and shifting blocs; the 2015 Arab single-list strategy, which became the third-largest party, offers a comparable precedent for how unified opposition blocs can alter outcomes, yet internal competing interests often prevent them from joining coalitions[1].

Traders should monitor the formal announcement of the new "Together" party by Bennett and Yair Lapid, which aims to oust Netanyahu, as well as ongoing Knesset dissolution proceedings driven by coalition strains over military exemptions and budget disputes[3][4]. The key dependency is whether Likud remains the largest single party while opposition blocs, led by Bennett and Eisenkot, narrow or overtake Netanyahu’s coalition in upcoming surveys, reflecting voter fatigue from prolonged conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran[4]. Recent polling indicates that while the public supports war objectives, resentment toward the government’s inability to deliver a decisive end-state is growing, making the value spot potentially on the underdog Bennett if the opposition bloc consolidates effectively before the election[6]. Contrarian angles suggest betting against the consensus that Netanyahu is nearly guaranteed, given that polls now show two candidates more suitable for the role than him[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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FAQ

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