Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market assesses whether Donald Trump will publicly insult a specific individual between now and 31 May 2026, with the crowd pricing this outcome at 9 per cent. The resolution criteria are broad, encompassing direct mockery, derogatory nicknames, attacks on competence or character, and negative characterisations delivered through any public channel. The 18-month window extends well into Trump's potential second term, should he remain in office, or his continued prominence in Republican politics if circumstances change.

Historical precedent suggests the 9 per cent probability sits substantially below Trump's demonstrated baseline. During his first presidency and subsequent years, Trump issued frequent public insults targeting political opponents, media figures, and former allies—from "Crooked Hillary" to "Sleepy Joe" to repeated attacks on Mitch McConnell and Liz Cheney. The pattern intensified during periods of political conflict or legal challenges. A comparable market on similar conduct during 2017–2020 would have faced odds far exceeding current levels, suggesting either material behavioural change or significant underpricing of baseline frequency.

Catalysts to monitor include Trump's legal proceedings, which historically correlate with increased public statements; Republican primary or general election dynamics if applicable; and his media engagement patterns, particularly Truth Social activity. Recent reporting indicates Trump remains highly active on social platforms and in campaign messaging. The resolution hinges on documentation of public statements rather than private remarks, meaning any insult must surface through media coverage, official transcripts, or direct publication. Traders should consider whether the crowd is anchoring to an artificially low baseline given Trump's historical communication style.

Methodology

We track Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.