Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by 2026?

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Market context

The Senate has still not passed a reconciliation bill, and with the market at 0% YES the crowd is treating the deadline as a near-certain miss. That is an aggressive underdog price, because reconciliation is designed to move on a simple majority and the chamber already cleared the budget resolution needed to unlock the process. In comparable cases, the key question is rarely whether the Senate can pass something in principle, but whether House and Senate factions can agree on identical text quickly enough to get it through both chambers before the clock runs out. That means the current price is effectively betting on either a procedural collapse or a delay beyond 31 May rather than a clean legislative finish.

The main catalysts are now timing, not policy. Senate Republicans passed the budget resolution on 23 April, the House adopted the same blueprint on 29 April, and committees were instructed to deliver reconciliation text by 15 May. Reuters and other outlets have reported that leadership wants a vote before 1 June, which leaves only a narrow window for committee sign-off, floor scheduling and any inter-chamber changes. The June 1 target is useful as a clue: if leaders keep repeating it, the market may stay biased to No unless a formal Senate vote is actually placed on the calendar. A trader looking for value would watch for official floor notices, committee mark-up releases and whether the House and Senate versions remain aligned, because any substantive rewrite would force another round of votes and raise the risk of missing the settlement window.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.