Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 10?

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Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 10 June 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather records. The 0% implied probability suggests the market has not yet attracted substantive trading interest, leaving the full range of plausible outcomes unpriced.

June in Shanghai sits within the early summer monsoon season, when daily highs typically range between 28–32°C. Historical data from the same station shows that 10 June temperatures have occasionally exceeded 33°C during warmer years, though readings above 35°C remain uncommon for this specific date. The 2023 Shanghai summer saw prolonged heat waves pushing temperatures above 37°C, but these occurred later in the month. Comparable early-June patterns from 2019–2022 suggest clustering around 30–32°C as the modal outcome, with tail risk extending toward both cooler (26–28°C) and hotter (34–36°C) scenarios depending on monsoon timing and subtropical high-pressure systems.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in late May and early June, which typically provide 10–14 day outlooks for Shanghai. El Niño or La Niña conditions active through spring 2026 will influence whether the subtropical ridge sits north or south of the Yangtze River valley. Any significant tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early June could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, whilst a dominant high-pressure system would favour above-average readings. Current consensus clustering near the 30–32°C bands leaves genuine value in both the 26–28°C and 34–36°C brackets if seasonal drivers shift materially.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.