Trump out as President by August 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump remaining president is the clear favourite here, with the market implying just **1%** that he is out by 31 August 2026. That is a very steep underdog price, and the consensus view is that the most likely outcome is simply no change in office status before the deadline. The contract is also unusual in that an *announcement* of resignation or removal would trigger a Yes immediately, even if the formal departure happens later, so traders are really pricing the chance of a credible public signal or abrupt constitutional event, not just the final legal paperwork.[1]

Historically, markets on presidential exits tend to sit at low single digits unless there is an active, concrete trigger such as impeachment proceedings, a major health scare, or a formal resignation signal. Comparable Trump departure contracts elsewhere have also shown the same pattern: the “early departure” side has generally remained a minority view, even when broader political risk around the administration has been discussed.[3][4] On that framing, 1% looks like a classic favourite/underdog setup: the favourite is overwhelming, but the implied price leaves room for contrarian buyers if they think headline risk is being underweighted.

The main catalysts are not routine policy events but official communications and calendar dependencies. A White House announcement, a resignation letter, a removal process, or a sudden health-related statement would matter most because the market resolves on permanent loss of office and counts a qualifying announcement straight away.[1] Recent prediction-market chatter has shown how quickly odds can move on unverified health rumours or absence-related speculation, with one report noting a brief surge in resignation chances before Trump publicly reassured followers that he had “never felt better.”[2] For a trader, that means the value question is whether the 1% already captures the full tail risk, or whether the contrarian angle is that an abrupt announcement window can make even a tiny baseline probability tradable.[2][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Trump out as President by August 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.