How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is effectively betting on whether Earth produces **at least one M6.5+ quake** in the August 3–9 window, and the crowd’s **96% YES** price makes that the clear favourite. In handicapper terms, the consensus is that a threshold event is very likely, but the tiny **4% NO** leaves a contrarian case only if the week finishes without any late USGS revisions or a qualifying event slipping through the final catalogue update.

Historical framing favours the favourite. USGS’s world M6+ listings for 2026 and recent year-by-year earthquake catalogues show that events at or above 6.5 are not rare on a global basis, and 2026 has already produced multiple significant earthquakes, including a June 25 M6.9 near Honshu and the June Mindanao sequence with major aftershocks above 6.5.[1][8][12] That does not prove this specific week, but it supports why the market has priced the over as a near-certainty. The value question is whether 96% is simply efficient or slightly rich: with the bar set at just one qualifying quake anywhere on Earth, the underdog needs an unusually quiet seven-day stretch.

For traders, the key catalyst is the USGS event catalogue itself, because the market resolves off the official search parameters rather than media reports or third-party trackers.[9] The main dependency is timing: a late-arriving USGS revision or a newly processed quake within the window can still change the count before settlement. Recent broad seismic round-ups and tracking pages have shown ongoing daily global activity, but many days still feature no M6.5+ events, which is why the exact final USGS tally, not headline chatter, is the decisive input here.[6][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.