How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 1 - June 7?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market prices zero probability of a magnitude 5.5 or stronger earthquake occurring anywhere on Earth during the seven-day window of 1–7 June 2026. This reflects an implicit assumption that seismic activity will remain below that threshold globally for that specific week.

Historically, earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 and above occur with measurable frequency. The USGS records approximately 15 earthquakes of magnitude 6.0–6.9 annually worldwide, with magnitude 5.5–5.9 events occurring several times per month on average. Over any given seven-day period, the statistical likelihood of at least one such event somewhere on Earth is material. The 0% pricing therefore represents a significant departure from long-run frequency data. Previous weeks with zero magnitude 5.5+ events do occur, but they are not the modal outcome; the consensus here appears to be pricing near-zero tail risk rather than reflecting genuine seismic quiescence.

Traders monitoring this market should track real-time USGS earthquake data as the settlement window approaches, particularly activity in known seismically active zones including the Pacific Ring of Fire, the Mediterranean belt, and mid-ocean ridge systems. No scheduled geological events or announcements typically precede earthquake occurrence, making this market dependent on actual geophysical phenomena rather than announced catalysts. The resolution hinges entirely on whether the USGS database records any magnitude 5.5+ events within the specified timeframe and geographic scope. The current pricing leaves substantial value for those assessing the statistical baseline of global seismic activity.

Methodology

We track How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 1 - June 7? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.