Senegal vs. Iraq - Exact Score

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Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup fixture sees Senegal, the African powerhouse ranked 19th globally, face Iraq, the Asian side ranked 57th, at Toronto Stadium on 26 June 2026. This match, designated as Group I Match 62, is a critical contest where Senegal’s Premier League-studded lineup, including Sadio Mané, clashes with Iraq’s disciplined squad ahead of the settlement window closing later today.

Historically, Senegal’s World Cup pedigree offers a stark contrast to Iraq’s limited experience, with the Africans reaching the quarter-finals in 2002 and qualifying for four tournaments total, while Iraq has struggled to replicate such depth in recent decades [1]. Comparable group-stage encounters between top-tier African nations and mid-tier Asian sides often resolve with a two-goal margin or a clean sheet, suggesting the current 4% implied probability for an exact score may undervalue Senegal’s defensive solidity, which has produced eight clean sheets in their last ten international wins [2]. The consensus leans heavily toward a Senegal victory, yet contrarian value might sit in specific exact scores like 2-0 or 3-1, where the market’s focus on the win outcome obscures the likelihood of a low-scoring, controlled affair.

Traders must monitor the final line-ups announced shortly before the 19:00 kick-off, as any late injury to key attackers like Mané could drastically shift the goal-scoring dynamics [4]. Recent training footage confirms both squads are fully prepared, with Iraq’s coach Graham Arnold addressing tactical questions regarding their defensive approach against Senegal’s high press [9]. The primary dependency is the weather in Toronto, which could influence the pace of the game, while the absence of extra time means the market resolves strictly on the 90-minute result, making early goals a critical catalyst for exact score outcomes [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Senegal vs. Iraq - Exact Score across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Who Will Win — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.