Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of san marino: facundo acosta vs juan carlos prado. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Facundo Acosta and Juan Carlos Prado in the San Marino, originally scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resol…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado on Who Will Win
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