Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Max Hans Rehberg | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Max Hans Rehberg Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Max Hans Rehberg Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Max Hans Rehberg Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Max Hans Rehberg Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Max Hans Rehberg Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Max Hans Rehberg Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Max Hans Rehberg Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Max Hans Rehberg Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Max Hans Rehberg Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Max Hans Rehberg Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Max Hans Rehberg Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Max Hans Rehberg Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Max Hans Rehberg Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Max Hans Rehberg Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Max Hans Rehberg. This market refers to the tennis match between Jan Choinski and Max Hans Rehberg in the Braunschweig, originally scheduled for July 8, 2026 at 10:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jan Choinski' i…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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