Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
88% | 12% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
88% | 12% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 88% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 3 Winner | 78% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff | 77% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff Match O/U 36.5 | 77% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 2 Winner | 66% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 66% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 1 Winner | 64% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 64% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff Match O/U 38.5 | 61% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 57% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff Match O/U 40.5 | 55% |
| Completed Match | 51% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 42% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 30% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 28% |
Market context
The Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff prediction market currently prices this outcome at 88% YES. This market refers to the tennis match between Hubert Hurkacz and Jan-Lennard Struff in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for July 5, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hubert Hurk…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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