Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Set 3 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Match O/U 38.5 | 81% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Match O/U 36.5 | 75% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 70% |
| Completed Match | 51% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Match O/U 40.5 | 45% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 29% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Set 4 Winner | 23% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 18% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 17% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien | 10% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to wimbledon atp: dalibor svrcina vs learner tien. This market refers to the tennis match between Dalibor Svrcina and Learner Tien in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Dalibor Svrcina…
Methodology
We track Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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