Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 28.5 | 94% |
| O/U 34.5 | 85% |
| O/U 30.5 | 83% |
| O/U 32.5 | 82% |
| O/U 36.5 | 79% |
| Indiana O/U 16.5 | 76% |
| O/U 38.5 | 75% |
| O/U 40.5 | 73% |
| O/U 42.5 | 69% |
| Ohio State O/U 20.5 | 69% |
| Indiana O/U 19.5 | 67% |
| 2Q O/U 12.5 | 61% |
| Ohio State O/U 23.5 | 59% |
| O/U 46.5 | 58% |
| Ohio State vs. Indiana | 56% |
| Spread -0.5 | 56% |
| O/U 44.5 | 55% |
| Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| O/U 48.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 51% |
| Spread -24.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Indiana O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Indiana O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Indiana O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Indiana 1H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Indiana 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Indiana 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Indiana 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Indiana 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Ohio State vs. Indiana: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State vs. Indiana: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State vs. Indiana: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Indiana 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Indiana 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State vs. Indiana: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State vs. Indiana: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State vs. Indiana: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Ohio State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Indiana O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| O/U 50.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 44% |
| Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| Spread -0.5 | 43% |
| Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| O/U 54.5 | 42% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 42% |
| Indiana 1H O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| O/U 52.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| Spread -8.5 | 37% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| O/U 60.5 | 32% |
| Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Spread -9.5 | 30% |
| Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| O/U 62.5 | 29% |
| Spread -12.5 | 28% |
| Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| O/U 56.5 | 27% |
| O/U 58.5 | 27% |
| Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| O/U 66.5 | 26% |
| O/U 68.5 | 25% |
| Spread -11.5 | 24% |
| Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| Spread -14.5 | 17% |
| Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| O/U 64.5 | 17% |
| Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| Spread -16.5 | 9% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 94% YES probability for Ohio State vs. Indiana. In the upcoming college football game between Ohio State and Indiana, scheduled for October 17 at 12:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Ohio State" if Ohio State win the game. This market will reso…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $404K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2214%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2236%22%20height%3D%228%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%23facc15%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2210%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2244%22%20height%3D%2214%22%20rx%3D%227%22%20fill%3D%22%23facc15%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%228%22%20%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%23facc15%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2248%22%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%23facc15%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade Ohio State vs. Indiana on Who Will Win
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →