Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 31.5 | 95% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 91% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 91% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 91% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 91% |
| O/U 37.5 | 89% |
| O/U 29.5 | 79% |
| O/U 33.5 | 79% |
| O/U 35.5 | 78% |
| O/U 39.5 | 77% |
| O/U 41.5 | 76% |
| O/U 43.5 | 75% |
| O/U 45.5 | 71% |
| O/U 47.5 | 70% |
| UCF O/U 20.5 | 69% |
| TCU vs. UCF | 61% |
| O/U 49.5 | 58% |
| Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| TCU O/U 23.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 55% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 54% |
| UCF O/U 23.5 | 53% |
| O/U 51.5 | 51% |
| TCU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 51% |
| TCU Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Spread -24.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| TCU O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| TCU O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| TCU O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| UCF O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| UCF O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| UCF O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| TCU 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| TCU 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| TCU 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| UCF 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| UCF 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| UCF 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| TCU 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| TCU 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| TCU 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| UCF 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| UCF 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| UCF 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| TCU O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| UCF O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| TCU vs. UCF: Total Touchdowns O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| TCU vs. UCF: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| TCU vs. UCF: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| TCU 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| TCU 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UCF 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UCF 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| TCU Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| TCU Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| TCU Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UCF Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UCF Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UCF Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| TCU vs. UCF: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| TCU vs. UCF: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| TCU vs. UCF: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| TCU O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| O/U 57.5 | 48% |
| O/U 53.5 | 47% |
| Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| Spread -5.5 | 44% |
| Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| Spread -6.5 | 43% |
| O/U 59.5 | 41% |
| O/U 55.5 | 40% |
| Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| Spread -8.5 | 36% |
| Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| O/U 63.5 | 35% |
| O/U 65.5 | 34% |
| Spread -12.5 | 33% |
| Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| O/U 69.5 | 30% |
| Spread -11.5 | 29% |
| Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| O/U 61.5 | 28% |
| Spread -14.5 | 27% |
| Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| Spread -17.5 | 23% |
| Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| O/U 67.5 | 18% |
| Spread -20.5 | 17% |
| Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| Spread -16.5 | 11% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 95% YES probability for TCU vs. UCF. In the upcoming college football game between TCU and UCF, scheduled for September 26 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "TCU" if TCU win the game. This market will resolve to "UCF" if UCF win …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $461K.
Methodology
We track TCU vs. UCF across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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