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Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs paiN (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier

How the prediction-market book is pricing "Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs paiN (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

Map 1 Winner 66% O/U 2.5 Games 53% Match Winner 51% Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 51% Volume: $351K Liquidity: $362K Closes: 23 Jul 2026
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Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs paiN (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
66% 34% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
66% 34% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Winner66%
O/U 2.5 Games53%
Match Winner51%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.551%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5)50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs paiN (+3.5)50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.550%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-6.5) vs Gentle Mates (+6.5)50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-9.5) vs Gentle Mates (+9.5)50%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5)43%
Map 2 Winner40%
Map Handicap: paiN (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5)40%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5)39%
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5)25%

Market context

Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs paiN (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier — current market-implied probability: 66%. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 32 match between Gentle Mates and paiN in the BLAST Bounty Qualifier, initially scheduled for July 23 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Gen…

Methodology

This page reviews Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs paiN (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

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