Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 39.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 45.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-3.5) vs Black Phoenix (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Winner | 50% |
| Map 2 Winner | 50% |
| Match Winner | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 44% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-3.5) vs Black Phoenix (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-6.5) vs Black Phoenix (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-9.5) vs Black Phoenix (+9.5) | 10% |
| Map Handicap: Black Phoenix (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Black Phoenix (-3.5) vs Walczaki (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 51.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-6.5) vs Black Phoenix (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-3.5) vs Black Phoenix (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Black Phoenix (-3.5) vs Walczaki (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Black Phoenix (-9.5) vs Walczaki (+9.5) | 10% |
| Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Black Phoenix (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 90% chance of counter-strike: walczaki vs ex-rustec (bo3) - cct europe series #6 playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 4 match between Walczaki and ex-RUSTEC in the CCT Europe Series #6 Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 7 at 7:00AM ET. T…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs ex-RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Eu… on Who Will Win
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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