England vs. Costa Rica

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Active sub-markets

Market context

England face Costa Rica in a FIFA International Friendly on 10 June 2026, with the market currently pricing a Costa Rica victory at 11 per cent. The fixture falls within the preparation window ahead of the 2026 World Cup, where both nations will be finalising squad selection and tactical approaches. England's recent record against Central American opposition has been consistently dominant; they have not lost to Costa Rica in any competitive or friendly encounter, with a goal differential of +8 across three meetings since 2014.

The 11 per cent probability reflects the substantial gap in FIFA ranking and recent form. Costa Rica currently sits around 30th in the world rankings, whilst England occupies a top-ten position. Friendly matches do carry inherent unpredictability—teams rotate squads, experiment with formations, and intensity varies—yet the historical precedent and competitive disparity suggest the market may be overweighting upset potential. England's squad depth and the likelihood of fielding a near-full-strength XI for World Cup preparation work against a Costa Rican upset, though the absence of key personnel through injury or late withdrawal could narrow the gap.

Traders should monitor team news releases in the week preceding the match, particularly regarding England's availability. Fixture congestion in the domestic leagues immediately prior to 10 June could influence selection decisions. Costa Rica's recent friendlies and any tactical shifts under their coaching staff warrant attention, though historical precedent and current form differentials suggest value may lie in backing England at shorter odds rather than chasing the underdog price.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.