England vs. Croatia

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Active sub-markets

Market context

England face Croatia in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 17 June. The market prices England at 19% to win, implying Croatia and a draw are favoured. This reflects England's standing as a higher-ranked side—they finished runners-up at Euro 2024—yet the probability suggests meaningful doubt about their ability to take three points in what would be a straightforward fixture on paper.

England's record against Croatia provides the clearest historical lens. The sides met in the 2018 World Cup semi-final, which Croatia won 2–1 after extra time en route to the final. That result remains the most recent competitive meeting and has shaped perceptions of the fixture despite England's intervening improvement. However, England reached the Euro 2024 final and have strengthened their squad depth since 2018, whilst Croatia's trajectory has been less consistent post-World Cup. The 19% probability for England appears to underweight their recent tournament form and ranking advantage; consensus may be anchoring too heavily on a single historical upset.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates through to the tournament, particularly regarding England's attacking options and Croatia's midfield stability. Fixture scheduling within the group will matter—England's position in the draw and whether they face Croatia early or late in the group stage affects both sides' approach and fatigue levels. Recent form in qualifying and any late-window transfers could shift the baseline, though the settlement window closes at match kick-off, leaving little room for last-minute surprises to alter the market substantially.

Methodology

This page reviews England vs. Croatia across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Who Will Win — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.