Haiti vs. Scotland - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage on 13 June, with the market pricing an exact scoreline at 11% implied probability. The settlement captures only the 90-minute result plus stoppage time, excluding any extra-time or penalty scenarios. This constraint matters significantly for a fixture between two nations with markedly different tournament pedigree and recent form.

Haiti's World Cup appearances remain sparse—their sole prior tournament was 1974—whilst Scotland have qualified five times, most recently in 2022. Historically, exact-score markets in competitive fixtures between nations of this calibre gap rarely cluster around any single result. The 11% probability suggests the market is pricing this outcome as roughly a one-in-nine chance, which aligns with typical distribution patterns when a specific scoreline competes against dozens of alternatives. Scotland enter as clear favourites given their UEFA ranking and recent qualification track record, yet exact-score markets reward contrarian positioning only when underlying match probabilities shift materially. Haiti's qualification itself signals competitive improvement, though the gap in infrastructure and player development typically manifests in goal differential rather than producing surprise scorelines.

Traders should monitor squad announcements through May 2026, particularly injury status among Scotland's established Premier League contingent. Fixture congestion in the days preceding 13 June could affect team selection depth. The market's current pricing reflects baseline expectations; movement would likely follow confirmation of starting elevens rather than pre-match narrative shifts, given the specificity required for exact-score settlement.

Methodology

We track Haiti vs. Scotland - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.