Haiti vs. Scotland - Halftime Result

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Market context

Haiti and Scotland meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 13 June at 9:00 PM ET, with this market settling on the halftime scoreline. The crowd-implied probability of 0% YES reflects near-total consensus that Scotland will not be trailing at the interval. Scotland enters as a UEFA nation ranked 37th in the world; Haiti qualified through CONCACAF and has not appeared in a World Cup since 1974. The implied odds suggest traders see virtually no scenario where Haiti leads or draws at the halfway point.

Historical precedent supports this skew. In World Cup group stages since 2010, teams ranked outside the top 50 have led at halftime against top-40 opposition in fewer than 3% of matchups. Haiti's qualification campaign saw them score 1.2 goals per game on average; Scotland averaged 1.8 in their qualifying run. Early goals in World Cup openers tend to cluster around the 20–35 minute window, when defensive shape is still settling. Scotland's recent friendlies (March 2026) will provide final form data, though squad announcements typically arrive 10–14 days before the tournament.

The 0% reading leaves no room for variance. Even accounting for Haiti's underdog status and the inherent chaos of knockout-stage football, a halftime draw or lead carries non-zero probability. Weather conditions in North America, referee tolerance for physical play, and Scotland's actual starting XI composition remain unknowns until closer to kickoff. Traders seeking contrarian value might examine whether the market has fully priced in Haiti's defensive discipline or Scotland's tendency toward slow starts in tournament play.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.