Sweden vs. Tunisia - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Sweden and Tunisia meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 14 June at 10:00 PM ET. The market currently shows 0% implied probability for any single exact score outcome, reflecting the inherent difficulty in predicting precise match results. This is standard for exact-score markets where dozens of potential outcomes fragment the probability space, yet the settlement window remains open until 15 June at 02:00 UTC, allowing for late movement should fresh information emerge about team selection or conditions.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in World Cup group fixtures rarely see consensus crystallise around any single result before kick-off. Sweden's recent tournament record shows they favour low-scoring affairs—their last three competitive matches averaged 1.3 goals per game—whilst Tunisia typically operates with defensive discipline in knockout-style pressure situations. The 0% reading reflects rational distribution across outcomes rather than genuine uncertainty about whether a match will occur; group-stage fixtures at major tournaments proceed as scheduled absent extraordinary circumstances.

Traders should monitor late team news from both federations, particularly injury updates to key attacking players. Sweden's squad depth in midfield and Tunisia's goalkeeper fitness represent potential catalysts for scoreline shifts. Weather conditions at the venue and any fixture rescheduling announcements would also warrant attention, though the FIFA schedule for 2026 remains locked. The exact-score format rewards either contrarian positioning on overlooked scorelines or abstention until closer to kick-off when lineup confirmation reduces uncertainty.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.