United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

The United States men’s national team, co-hosts of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, face Bosnia and Herzegovina in a Round of 32 knockout match on 1 July 2026 at 8:00 PM ET in San Diego. This fixture carries heightened stakes: a win sends the US to the Round of 16, where they could reach the quarterfinals for the first time since 2002[6]. The market currently prices an exact score outcome at 6% YES, implying the consensus expects a wide or unpredictable result, yet historical data suggests caution. The USMNT’s last victory against a European team occurred in December 2021 against Bosnia itself, outside a FIFA window, underscoring a persistent struggle against European opposition[3]. Bosnia, ranked 58th globally, is undefeated in recent form and physically robust, making them a tough underdog despite the US’s home advantage and confidence under Mauricio Pochettino[2].

Traders should monitor pre-match squad announcements, particularly regarding key attackers like Antonee Robinson, whose presence is critical to US offensive momentum[6]. Recent analysis highlights value in Bosnia on the +1.5 spread, as the US may win narrowly rather than decisively, and a draw at regulation (2-2) offers contrarian appeal given the US’s tendency to score first but struggle to convert dominance into large margins[2]. The books currently price the US at -300, yet the physical nature of Bosnia and the +1.5 goal cushion at even money plus 100 presents a compelling value spot for those betting against the consensus[2]. With the settlement window ending 2 July 2026, any postponement would keep the market open, but no such delay is anticipated as the match proceeds as scheduled[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.