PGA Tour: FedEx St. Jude Championship Winner

Platform comparison

Market context

The FedEx St. Jude Championship takes place in August 2026 as the opening event of the PGA Tour's Playoffs, held annually at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee. The tournament attracts the Tour's top 125 players competing for a substantial purse and crucial playoff positioning. The 6% implied probability reflects a specific player's odds of winning this single event—a notably tight field where form, course fit, and momentum heading into the playoffs carry material weight.

Historical context shows that FedEx St. Jude winners often emerge from the Tour's established elite, though the field's depth means surprise victors occur regularly. Between 2020 and 2025, the championship saw winners ranging from consistent top-10 finishers to players outside the typical favourites' circle, suggesting the market's 6% probability sits neither unusually high nor low for a mid-tier contender. Course history matters considerably; TPC Southwind favours accurate iron play and putting consistency over length, which narrows the advantage for certain player profiles.

Traders should monitor early-season form through summer 2026, particularly performance at major championships and regular Tour events in the months preceding August. Injury announcements or changes to player equipment sponsorships can shift preparation routines. The playoff structure itself—where the St. Jude Championship determines seeding for subsequent playoff events—means players will arrive with varying levels of urgency depending on their current standings. Recent PGA Tour communications regarding field sizes and eligibility criteria should be tracked, as rule changes occasionally affect who competes and therefore the probability distribution across the field.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

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