Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of plovdiv 2: petr nesterov vs sebastian sorger. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Petr Nesterov and Sebastian Sorger in the Plovdiv 2, originally scheduled for August 5, 2026 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve …
Methodology
This page reviews Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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