Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Any Other Score | 50% |
| SC Internacional 2 - 0 Clube do Remo | 22% |
| SC Internacional 1 - 0 Clube do Remo | 20% |
| SC Internacional 2 - 1 Clube do Remo | 12% |
| SC Internacional 3 - 0 Clube do Remo | 12% |
| SC Internacional 1 - 1 Clube do Remo | 11% |
| SC Internacional 3 - 1 Clube do Remo | 6% |
| SC Internacional 1 - 2 Clube do Remo | 3% |
| SC Internacional 2 - 2 Clube do Remo | 3% |
| SC Internacional 3 - 2 Clube do Remo | 2% |
| SC Internacional 2 - 3 Clube do Remo | 1% |
| SC Internacional 3 - 3 Clube do Remo | 1% |
| SC Internacional 0 - 0 Clube do Remo | 0% |
| SC Internacional 0 - 1 Clube do Remo | 0% |
| SC Internacional 0 - 2 Clube do Remo | 0% |
| SC Internacional 0 - 3 Clube do Remo | 0% |
| SC Internacional 1 - 3 Clube do Remo | 0% |
Market context
SC Internacional travel to face Clube do Remo in a Série A fixture on 17 August 2026. The match settles on the final score at 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with any result not explicitly listed resolving to "Any Other Score." The 0% implied probability on this exact-score market reflects the inherent difficulty in predicting specific scorelines rather than match outcomes; exact-score markets typically show low probabilities across all listed options when liquidity is thin or when no single result dominates historical patterns between these sides.
Internacional, based in Porto Alegre, competes at a higher competitive level than Remo, the Pará-based club. Historical head-to-head records and recent Série A form suggest Internacional as favourites, but exact-score prediction requires accounting for both teams' goal-scoring patterns and defensive records. Remo's recent promotion history and performance volatility means their typical output varies considerably match-to-match, making consensus difficult to establish on any single scoreline.
Traders should monitor team news closer to 17 August, particularly injury updates and squad rotation decisions, as these directly influence expected goal tallies. Internacional's fixture congestion in the weeks prior may affect available personnel, whilst Remo's adaptation to top-flight pace remains a variable. The settlement window closes at 23:00 UTC on match day, allowing only the final whistle result to count. Value in exact-score markets typically emerges where consensus underestimates a team's attacking or defensive capability; currently, the flat 0% distribution suggests limited consensus has formed, leaving room for informed positioning once team sheets are confirmed.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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