Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Washington Freedom and Seattle Orcas are set to clash in the third Major League Cricket match on 25 June 2026, with the market currently pricing Washington Freedom’s win at 0% implied probability. This stark valuation mirrors the season opener, where Seattle Orcas defeated Washington Freedom by five wickets in Grand Prairie, Texas, with Ottneil Baartman taking four wickets to dismantle the Freedom batting line[1][2]. Historically, chasing sides have dominated all three matches this season, suggesting a strong pattern favouring the team batting second[4]. Such consistency in run-chase outcomes frames the current 0% probability not as an outlier, but as a logical extension of recent form and tactical advantage.

Traders should monitor pre-match announcements regarding pitch conditions and toss outcomes, as the chasing advantage remains the primary catalyst for this fixture. Seattle Orcas have already set a league batting record in the opener, reinforcing their offensive depth[5]. While no new injury reports have surfaced, the dependency on toss results is critical; if Washington Freedom wins the toss and bowls first, the historical chasing trend may shift value contrarianly. Recent coverage from ESPN confirms Baartman’s impact and Orcas’ batting resilience, underscoring why the consensus heavily favours Seattle[1]. Value may sit only if Washington Freedom secures the toss and the pitch favours bowlers, creating a rare contrarian angle against the 0% market price.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.