Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Canada will face Bosnia-Herzegovina in a World Cup group-stage match on 12 June 2026, with the settlement window closing at 19:00 ET on that date. The market prices an exact-score outcome at 10% implied probability, reflecting the difficulty of predicting precise final tallies across thousands of possible scorelines.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in competitive international fixtures typically cluster around 2–4% for any single outcome when dealing with established nations. Canada's recent record shows inconsistent attacking output—they scored 2–1 against Jamaica and 1–0 against Honduras in qualifying, but also produced 0–0 and 1–1 draws. Bosnia-Herzegovina similarly demonstrated variable finishing, with results ranging from 2–0 victories to goalless stalemates in their qualifying campaign. The 10% probability assigned here likely reflects either a specific scoreline receiving disproportionate backing or consensus around a narrow range of plausible outcomes rather than true statistical likelihood across all possibilities.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates through late May, particularly regarding Canada's attacking depth and Bosnia-Herzegovina's defensive personnel. Recent UEFA Nations League fixtures (March 2026) will provide the most current form indicators. Group composition and seeding will also matter—if either side faces stronger opponents earlier in the group stage, tactical approaches and fatigue levels entering this fixture could shift. The exact-score market remains illiquid relative to match-winner or over-under totals, meaning early positioning carries outsized influence on quoted probabilities.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.