Türkiye vs. Paraguay - Exact Score

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Market context

On 19 June 2026, Türkiye and Paraguay face in a critical FIFA World Cup Group D clash at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, with both sides needing a win after opening-round defeats. The match resolves on the final score after 90 minutes, excluding extra time and penalties. The crowd-implied probability for an exact score outcome sits at 8% YES, suggesting the market views specific scorelines as unlikely compared to the broader “Any Other Score” category.

Historically, World Cup matches between defensively disciplined teams like Paraguay and attacking sides like Türkiye often produce low-scoring draws or narrow wins, with over 2.5 goals not especially surprising given both teams’ urgency [3]. In comparable 2022 and 2026 qualifiers, Türkiye averaged 1.6 points per match with 0.6 opponent points, while Paraguay’s defensive structure typically limits high-scoring affairs [4]. This context frames the 8% probability as potentially undervalued if a tight 1–0 or 2–1 result occurs, offering value for contrarian traders betting against consensus on goal totals.

Traders should monitor late lineup announcements, weather conditions in Santa Clara, and any tactical shifts from coaches following the opening losses [8]. ESPN notes Türkiye is listed at +125 ML with a -0.5 spread, while Paraguay is favoured at -165 for under 2.5 goals, indicating market expectation of a low-scoring game [1]. With the settlement window ending 2026-06-20T03:00:00Z, real-time updates on substitutions and in-game momentum will be decisive for exact score positioning.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.