United States vs. Paraguay - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The United States and Paraguay meet in a World Cup group stage fixture on 12 June 2026, with the market pricing an exact final score at 11% implied probability. This represents a single outcome among dozens of plausible scorelines, making the YES position inherently narrow. The consensus reflects the mathematical reality that any specific 1–0, 2–1, or 3–2 result carries modest odds individually, yet the market's current pricing suggests traders view this particular outcome as slightly less likely than the baseline expectation.

Historical precedent from recent World Cups shows that group stage matches between these confederations typically produce moderate-scoring affairs. The USA–Paraguay fixture in 2016 Copa América ended 1–0 to the Americans; their last World Cup meeting in 2002 saw a 3–1 US victory. These encounters rarely generate high-scoring draws or one-sided blowouts, clustering instead around 1–0, 2–0, or 2–1 results. The 11% probability for a single exact score aligns with the statistical likelihood of any individual outcome when the expected range spans roughly 0–3 goals per side.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates through May 2026, as absences of key attacking players could shift the expected goal distribution downward. Paraguay's defensive record and the US's attacking depth will shape whether the match trends toward low-scoring or open play. Fixture congestion in the days preceding 12 June may also influence team selection and tactical approach, particularly if either side has already secured or been eliminated from knockout qualification.

Methodology

We track United States vs. Paraguay - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.