Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
67% | 33% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
67% | 33% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 67% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 66% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 65% |
| Game 1 Winner | 62% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 62% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 62% |
| Game 2 Winner | 61% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 54% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 53% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 53% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 47% |
| Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) | 40% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1? | 40% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 38% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 38% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 38% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 37% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 37% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 37% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2? | 37% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
Market context
Market consensus: 67% chance of lol: hanwha life esports vs t1 (bo3) - esports world cup playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL Quarterfinal 1 match between Hanwha Life Esports and T1 in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 17 at 7:00AM ET. This market …
Methodology
This page reviews LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World… on Who Will Win
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →