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LoL: Shark Attack vs SU Esports (BO3) - TCL Play-Ins

Five-platform snapshot of "LoL: Shark Attack vs SU Esports (BO3) - TCL Play-Ins" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Game Handicap: SU (-1.5) vs Shark Attack (+1.5) 64% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 63% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 63% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 62% Volume: $53K Liquidity: $53K Closes: 12 Aug 2026
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LoL: Shark Attack vs SU Esports (BO3) - TCL Play-Ins

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
64% 36% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
64% 36% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game Handicap: SU (-1.5) vs Shark Attack (+1.5)64%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon63%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon63%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon62%
Any Player Quadra Kill53%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Penta Kill48%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors48%
Any Player Penta Kill48%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors47%
O/U 2.5 Games38%
Game 1 Winner22%
Game 2 Winner22%
Match Winner13%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 64% probability to lol: shark attack vs su esports (bo3) - tcl play-ins. This market refers to the LoL Mid bracket round 2 match between Shark Attack and SU Esports in the TCL Play-Ins, initially scheduled for August 12 at 10:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Shark At…

Methodology

This page reviews LoL: Shark Attack vs SU Esports (BO3) - TCL Play-Ins across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
and

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