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LoL: The Secret Club Esport vs SU Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage

Five-platform snapshot of "LoL: The Secret Club Esport vs SU Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Both Teams Slay a Dragon 74% Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor 74% Any Player Quadra Kill 74% Odd/Even Total Kills 54% Volume: $340K Liquidity: $196K Closes: 1 Oct 2026
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LoL: The Secret Club Esport vs SU Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
74% 26% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
74% 26% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
— — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
— — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
— — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Both Teams Slay a Dragon74%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor74%
Any Player Quadra Kill74%
Odd/Even Total Kills54%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon54%
Odd/Even Total Kills54%
Any Player Penta Kill51%
Game 1 Winner50%
Game 2 Winner50%
Match Winner50%
O/U 2.5 Games50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Game Handicap: SU (-1.5) vs The Secret Club Esport (+1.5)50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor32%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors32%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors27%
Any Player Penta Kill27%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors27%
Any Player Penta Kill27%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 74% YES probability for LoL: The Secret Club Esport vs SU Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage. This market refers to the LoL Round 5 match between The Secret Club Esport and SU Esports in the EMEA Masters Swiss Stage, initially scheduled for September 30, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET. This market will r…

Methodology

This page reviews LoL: The Secret Club Esport vs SU Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
and

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