Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
85% | 15% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
85% | 15% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+1.5) | 85% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 71% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 5? | 66% |
| Game Handicap: TES (-2.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+2.5) | 60% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 54% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 54% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 53% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 52% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 52% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4? | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 5? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 5? | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 48% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 48% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 47% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 47% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 47% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 43% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 43% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 42% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 42% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 42% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 38% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 38% |
| Game 4 Winner | 36% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 36% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 27% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 27% |
| Game 2 Winner | 17% |
| Game 3 Winner | 17% |
| Game 1 Winner | 14% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 14% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 13% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 11% |
| Match Winner | 7% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 6% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 5% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 85% probability to lol: team secret whales vs top esports (bo5) - mid-season invitational playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket round 1 match between Team Secret Whales and Top Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 4 at 11:00PM ET. This market…
Methodology
We track LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-S… on Who Will Win
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →