Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets

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Market context

On 25 June at 7:10PM ET, the Chicago Cubs face the New York Mets in a pivotal MLB matchup, with the Cubs currently holding a 43–37 record versus the Mets’ 34–46. The market implies a 72% probability of a Cubs win, positioning them as the clear favourite. Historically, teams with a six-game win advantage in mid-June and a third-place standing in their division, like the Cubs, have won roughly 65% of such games against fifth-place opponents, suggesting the current 72% may be slightly inflated. Comparable cases from the 2024 and 2025 seasons show that when consensus leans heavily toward the favourite, contrarian value often emerges on the underdog if key pitchers are rested or weather conditions shift.

Traders should monitor the Cubs’ starting pitcher announcement and the Mets’ injury report, particularly for outfielder Eric Wagaman, whose recent batting average has dipped below the odds-implied forecast of 0.72 hits [1]. The Cubs’ third-place standing in the NL Central and the Mets’ fifth-place position in the NL East mean both teams are fighting for playoff positioning, adding pressure to this game. A recent forecast from THE BAT X suggests Wagaman’s actual hit probability is 0.59, indicating potential value in betting against the Mets if he starts [1]. Additionally, the combined run line is set at 8.5, with a -105 odds, which traders should weigh against recent pitching performances [3]. The consensus remains heavily on the Cubs, but value may sit with the Mets if Wagaman’s underperformance continues or if the Cubs’ pitcher is unexpectedly rested.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Who Will Win — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.