Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros is an ordinary regular-season MLB game, but the market’s **0% YES** implies an extreme dislocation from the sportsbook view, where Houston are priced around **-132 to -136** and model-based win probability sits near **54.9%** for the Astros.[1][2][5] In handicapper terms, the consensus still leans Houston as the favourite, with Cleveland the underdog; at that pricing, any meaningful value discussion is really about whether the market has overcorrected against the Guardians or whether the crowd has simply failed to load a live and tradable result.

The historical frame also points towards Houston rather than a zero-priced Cleveland ticket. One bookmaker notes the Astros have won roughly **60%** of the last ten meetings, and another cites an even broader edge across the last three seasons, though that figure is less transparent and should be treated as directional rather than exact.[3] On that kind of comparable form, the contrarian angle is not that Cleveland are the obvious side, but that a **0% YES** can create shallow, sentiment-driven mispricing if the Guardians’ actual line-up, pitcher, or late news narrows the true gap more than the current crowd has allowed.

The key catalysts are the confirmed starters, late scratches, and any weather or postponement risk, because MLB moneylines can move sharply once line-ups are posted and pitchers are locked in. ESPN’s game page lists the matchup as Cleveland at Houston and signals the market is already anchored around Houston, while the USAToday game summary flags the probable pitching as **Slade Cecconi** for Cleveland and **Kai-Wei Teng** for Houston, which would be a major dependency if either side changes.[2][8] If one starter is replaced or the game is delayed, the consensus can shift quickly; absent that, the value case remains concentrated on whether the 0% crowd has mistaken a fairly priced favourite for a one-sided mismatch.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.