New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The New York Yankees face the Detroit Tigers in a pivotal MLB matchup tonight at 6:40PM ET, with the crowd-implied probability favouring the Yankees at 46% despite the Tigers holding the moneyline edge. This scenario mirrors recent contests where the Tigers, bolstered by ace pitcher Tarik Skubal, have consistently outperformed their odds against top-tier offensive lines, creating a classic favourite-underdog dynamic where the market undervalues home-field pitching dominance. Historically, when a team with Skubal’s calibre pitches against a Yankees squad recovering from a three-game skid, the consensus often leans too heavily on offensive reputation, leaving value spots for contrarian angles on the underdog or the under total.

Traders should monitor the starting lineups for any late pitching changes, as Skubal’s presence is the primary catalyst for the Tigers’ 54% implied win probability, while the Yankees’ offensive potential remains a risky variable given their recent defensive lapses. Recent analysis from Sportsbook Wire highlights that while Skubal presents a considerable advantage, the Yankees’ offensive potential makes dismissing New York +1.5 risky, suggesting the value might sit on the under 7.5 total runs rather than a straight moneyline pick[2]. With the settlement window closing on 1 July 2026, the immediate focus remains on whether the Yankees can overcome the Tigers’ pitching advantage in a game where the combined score is set at 7.5, a threshold that has been consistently under in their recent head-to-head encounters.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.